Sunday, June 7, 2009

EUR/USD: Weekly Technical Outlook







I closed out my last trade of the week on Friday for +80 pips. I will be looking to short EU early in the week. Price may retrace up to the 1.4050 or the 1.4100 zone before continuing with the bearish correction. I will be paying close attention to how price behaves around the 200 day simple moving average (SMA) on the 1 hour chart (H1). The 200 SMA is also hanging around the 50.0 Fibonacci retracement level. I really like to trade that level because many traders pay attention to that Fibonacci level. Price is approaching a critical level in the 21 day exponential moving average (EMA) on the daily chart, which almost corresponds with the bottom trend line of the ascending channel. Volatility increases around critical levels like this so it may be prudent to stay on the sideline until price demonstrates where it is headed from there. We may get the upside correction from there to the 1.4050 or the 1.4100 level.

Trade Idea: Wait for upside correction to 1.4050 – 1.4100 level Short EU with target of 1.3815

2 comments:

  1. Very similiar plan. Was wondering also long from ~1,3900 a bit higher where to short again.

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  2. A long from 1.3900 may not be a bad idea. I would exit @ 1.4040. Stochastics are oversold territory H1, H4 and in no trade territory on daily. I plan on building short position with first entry @ 1.4040 and a second at 1.4100 if price makes it there.

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