Thursday, May 7, 2009

EUR/USD: Non Farm Payroll

As a refresher for myself, and to help other traders, I will be providing daily brief explanations of the Economic Data Reports that effect the EUR/USD to be released the following day.

The Non Farm Payroll Report (NFP), also referred to as the establishment survey, is coming out tomorrow and this is the "big number" all traders really pay attention to. The NFP forecast is for the U.S. to lose another -590K jobs. Important things to consider about this report are:

- Relevance = High

- NFP reports on about 80% of U.S. workforce, except government jobs, self employed, and farm workers, among some others.

- most economists believe that the U.S. needs to add an average of 100,000 to 150,000 jobs every month to accommodate population growth and to keep unemployment rate from rising

- the markets pays close attention to the difference between the actual number and the forecasted number

- trading this report is very difficult and risky

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