Sunday, May 24, 2009

EUR/USD: How far will the EU retrace?




I built a short position right around the 1.4000 psychological level. I notice the bearish divergences (price made higher high, indicator failed to make higher high) in H4 and daily stochastics. My position size is much smaller than usual because of the rather loose stop, and because this is a counter trend trade. I don’t trade against the trend very often, but I got numerous reasons technically to enter this trade. I am exiting this trade at 1.3920. I will move my stop down to first short entry at 1.3975 if and when price reaches 1.3940 area. Price may find support at the 23.6 retracement level (1.3905) depicted on daily chart and then resume the bullish continuation. If this area proves to be support the I will enter long here. If not, I will wait for price to retrace to the 38.2 retracement level depicted on daily and watch if price finds support here to enter long.

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