Moved Stop Down to 1.3290

I moved my stop down to 1.3290 which is just above the 50 SMA (blue) which was acting as support (now resistance) during the EU's recent up move.

Sold Half Position @ 1.3258

I locked in +73 pips on half of my position when price reached that 1.3251 support level and brought my stop to 5 pips below original buy point @ 1.3325. I didn't want to be greedy and I also didn't want to replicate the mistake I made with my last trade. Now I will let profits run.

Short EU @ 1.3330

Nice technical set-up. Price reached the upper trend line on the daily chart and began to stall. Stochastics are bearish on daily. That trend line has been in place since December so it should be a significant resistance level. There is a bearish divergence in the OSMA on H4 and Stochastics are turning bearish. Also, bearish divergence on M30 and Stochastics are turning bearish. In addition, a shooting star developed and played out on M30 during Obama's press conference. Now, I would like to mention that this market has been very difficult for me to trade lately because technicals have been negated by world events and fundamental surprises. Target 1.2888 stop @ 1.3420. Plan is to manually move stop down as support levels are broken.

EU gaining bullish momentum

I am looking to go long after we get the retest of the upper line of the descending channel. Just recently got a break of the 1.3300 level. Waiting to see if that will hold as support.

Plan of Action

I mismanaged my last trade and a winner turned into a loser. If I continue to let this happen my bottom line will be affected in a big way. I could start using a trailing stop but I really don’t like them because I found that I was getting out of trades way too early. I have started using manual trailing stops, moving stops down above support levels as they got broken. I failed to do that last trade which cost me. I will make sure to set alerts that wake me if price breaks the next support level from now on.

I noticed that when I became more public about my trades fear began taking me over a little. As a result, the past few trades posted on this blog were not as profitable as they could have been. I think, however, that this blog will help me in the long run because I will be more cognizant of my rules (must be 2:1, only with trend when one is in place, wait for retest, etc.) when I place trades, which is also critical for my bottom line.

Mismanaged Last Trade

I broke a cardinal rule of trading and let a potential +50 pips winner turn into a -23 pip loser. I overslept and didn’t set and alerts in MT4 to wake me in case price reached certain levels. I hate when this happens. This is a mistake that I made a lot more when I was new to trading. I will come up with an action plan that will ensure this happens less often in the future and will post it later. I am at work now. It looks like price is meeting resistance at that 1.3088 level which is where price broke out yesterday.

Short EU @ 1.3018

I took a position trade short @ 1.3018. I was at work so I missed the initial break of 1.3088. I am concerned that I got in late here. Maybe I should have waited for retracement? I took a smaller position due to the fact that I got in late. Fib to downside 1.3737 - 1.2888 - price retraced to 50.0 level at 1.3313. The 161.8 extension, which would be target with a break and retest of 1.2888 is 1.2362. Price clearly broke through most support (trendlines, moving averages). My initial target will be 1.2890. Hopefully, fear doesn't take me over this time and I wait for target.

Locked in +2 after price reached 1.3088 support level

Locked in +2 pips after price reached 1.3088 support level. A hammer developed on M30 and price quickly went up and took me out for the small profit. I'm glad I locked in some profit. Now I will wait and see if that support level at 1.3088 gets broken, or for a conformation that this down leg was just a corrective wave before further upside movement.

Got the break and retest of lower Trendline.

Short EU @ 1.3120 Target 1.3015. Now that the world is concerned about the swine flu, risk aversion is lifting the dollar up. T-bills are up this morning and the dollar has made some hefty gains across the board. The daily technicals are pointing south and price should probe that lower trend line which corresponds with my target of 1.3015.

First trade of the week +26 pips.

I like to start the week of with a winning trade. I know I deviated from my trading plan, but that set up was nice and gave me good risk reward ratio. Now lets see if the 50% Fib and that lower trendline hold as support.

Short @1.3189 Target 1.3159

Standing Aside

The EU seems to be consolidating and it has been hard for me to determine a clear direction on this pair for now. The positive fundamental news (PMI and German IFO business confidence survey) that came out last week really negated the technicals, giving me some trouble on my last trade and I got stopped out. I am paying close attention to the 1.3400 level since it is OO psychological level and because it corresponds with the 61.8% retracement depicted on the daily chart. Also, the upper trend line of the descending channel depicted on H4 chart is coming into play. After a break and retest of that line I will be looking long. If the EU breaks that trend line starting from the low at 1.2888 and retests I will look short. Just waiting to see how everything plays out.

Shorted EU @ 1.3146 w/ Tight Stop @1.3165

I shorted here because Stochastics on H4 is also showing signs of topping here. My target is 1.3117. If the 1.3088 resistance holds through Euro open I will start looking for long entry.

Sold half @ 1.2888 yesterdays low

I sold half my position at 1.2888 and moved my stop to break even. I am going to let profits run to final target.

Short @ 1.2977

I saw this head and shoulders pattern on the M30 and after Weber's comments saw a good short opportunity here. Took it. Target 1.2788.

Took Profit after Geithner's Comments

Took +15 pips after Geithner's comments... Wasn't sure how things were going to play out. I hate when a winner turns into a loser.

Initial Target is 1.2910

Will sell half my position @ 1.2910 will move my stop to breakeven at that point and will let profits run.

Signs of top.. went short @1.2963

Went short. I noticed the bearish divergences in the OSMA and Stochs. I also notices the two shooting star candle formations right around that 23.6 fib level. I must admit, I am unsure of my target at the moment. Will post it sooon.

EU finds Support After ZEW Economic Sentiment Report

EU found support at 1.2988. What to do? Since the EU is in clear downtrend I will only look for short entries. I will enter half of my short if and when price reaches that upper trendline and will place my stop about 30 pips above horizontal support line at 1.3115. I have been trying to scale in recently. Also, notice the bullish divergence in the Stochastics.

When to Short EU Next

I am going to wait until 1.2900 level (138.2 %) is broken to enter short. Target will be 161.8% Fib Level

Rationale for exiting last trade

I got out of the last trade because I noticed this bullish divergence in the OSMA and that Stoch were exhausted to downside. Also, the smaller candle bodies demonstrated to me that the down move was losing some steam. Plus I am going to bed soon and don't like to leave open trades unless I have locked in at least +20 pips. Seems good possibility for countertrend trade because indicators in H4 are in agreement with M30.

Locked in +10 pips EU short

Not a huge success but better than a loss. First trade +10 pips

First trade on this blog

Ok here we go. My first trade. My target was almost hit very quickly after taking this trade. I am having a struggle with myself at the moment. Should I wait for target. This is fear setting in. I will wait. Short @ 1.2990 stop @ 1.3120 target @ 1.2957 not 2:1 win loss is it. Well, also my first mistake on this blog.

EU Broke 1.3000 Psychological level

Well, I got the break I was looking for but it was shortlived. Price bounced off the lower trendline of descending channel. This is when I have trouble. I get impulsive on these breaks at times only to be faked out. I noticed that I am being more patient probably because I know my trades will be more public now. LOL. I will wait for a better short entry. Also, I have found that there are many more false breakouts during asian session.

The EU is clearly in a downtrend. I use Fibs to set my targets. My overall target is 1.2785 which is the 161.8% extension of 61.8% fib 1.3580/1.3088. I use daily to determine overall direction and H4/M30 for entry and exits. Use Fibs, pivot points for targets. Had a 66% overall success rate last month. Will post enrty/stop/target when I enter and the results f

Will the EU retest 1.3080/90 before break of 1.3000?

Right now 1.3015 seems to be holding as support. Should I wait for a break and retest of 1.3000 before going short? Why not? Or maybe 1.3080 will get retested before short sellers come back. Right now the Eu retraced to 23.6 at 1.3066 on the nose. If the 0.0 level gets broke and retested my target will be 1.2957 the 127 extension. Trichet's comments seem to be waying heavily on the EU right now.