Travis' Forex Blog

EUR/USD: Standing Aside

2009-06-29T21:10:00.002-04:00

As I am writing this post price is breaking through neckline of Head And Shoulder pattern. I will go long after a retest of this level with a target of 1.4260 which is the 161.8 Fib level. If price fails to hold above the 1.4118 after a break I will look to take a small short. Stay tunes for live trade updates on twitter.

EUR/USD: Long @ 1.4003

2009-06-25T23:31:00.001-04:00

I have been out of the market for some time. I took a long position in the EU after the upper trend line proved to be strong support with two four hour candles failing to close below it (see H4 chart). I also noticed a Head and Shoulders reversal pattern depicted in H4 chart. I will take some profit if and when price reaches the neckline. If price violates and retests the neckline as support I will move my stop up about 30 pips below the neckline. Alternatively, I will be looking to go short if price breaks and retests 1.3747 level. Stay tuned to twitter for live trade updates.

EUR/USD: Standing Side with short term bullish bias; -42 pips last trade

2009-06-23T22:52:00.003-04:00

Economic data out of the Eurozone and the United States weighed the dollar down today. US existing home sales increased for the second month in May. European purchasing manger indexes shrank by the least amount since the inception of the recession. As a result, risk appetite increased which always hurts the dollar. I was stopped out on my last trade for a -42 pip loss. I will be looking to go long, as long as price finds support at the 1.400 level which corresponds with the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement level at 1.4001. The bullish triangle reversal pattern played out today with a break of the upper trend line of that formation (See 1 hour H1 chart). My target if this plays out will be 30 pips below the 138.2 Fibonacci extension level at 1.4186. I will be looking to short the Euro at this level. Stay tuned on twitter for real time trade updates.

EUR/USD: Short @ 1.3863

2009-06-22T20:22:00.003-04:00

I waited to go short until I got more of a signal from price action. I entered at 1.3863 and my overall target will be 1.3500. I plan on taking some profit at 1.3760 and brining my stop down if price makes it there. I may add more to the position after a break and retest of 0.0 Fibonacci level at 1.3745. The weekly and daily stochastics are currently in bearish cycles, which support bearish bias at the moment. Stay tuned on Twitter for live trade updates.

EUR/USD: Standing Aside

2009-06-18T21:18:00.003-04:00

I haven’t posted for the last two days because I was sick. I am standing aside for now because it has been pretty tough to determine a clear direction in the EU. The EU is currently trading in a bullish ascending channel depicted on 1 hour chart (H1) and a hammer just printed on H1. My plan is to short EU at 61.8% retracement (1.4012) with a target of 1.3750. The daily chart stochastics have begun a bullish cycle but price remains below the 21 exponential moving average (EMA). I would suggest “sitting tight” until price reaches upper trend line of triangle depicted on H4 and daily stochastic finish current bullish cycle. I plan on adding GBP/JPY analysis to my blog posts as soon as I become more comfortable trading this pair. Stay tuned on twitter for real time trade updates.

EUR/USD: The Bears are in control!!!!

2009-06-15T17:27:00.003-04:00

I closed first trade for +172 pips and reentered after the neckline of head and shoulders was broke and retested. Today there was plenty of data and comments that were USD bullish. The Russian Finance minister said the dollar was in “good shape” which started bullish momentum of the dollar. In addition, the number of people working in the eurozone declined by 1.2% which didn’t bode well for the Euro. Furthermore, data released out of the US today was worse than expected which encouraged the market to be risk averse giving the dollar a boost.

The neckline of the Head and Shoulders was violated before noon EST. Price has been able to remain under the neckline for now. If price remains below the neckline I will use the 261.8 Fibonacci extension level for my final target at 1.3589. If not, I will redraw a Fib and wait to see where price retraces to define my target. Stay tuned on twitter for real time trade updates.

EUR/USD: Weekly Technical Outlook

2009-06-14T12:50:00.004-04:00

My last trade didn’t work out -36 pips. I am cautiously bearish. The EU seems to be losing steam to the upside, as evidenced by the Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern on the four hour chart (H4), diminishing volume as price rises, and the confirmed bearish divergence (price making higher high; indicator failing to make higher high) in OSMA (H4). In addition, stochastics on the weekly chart are about to start a bearish cycle. Furthermore, price failed to break through the 50.0 Fibonacci level of the (1.6036 – 1.2321) Fib depicted on weekly chart. If we get a break and retest of the neckline of the H&S pattern around 1.3820 my overall target will be 1.3600 which is the 138.2 Fibonacci extension level of the (1.4337 – 1.3809) Fib depicted on daily. I expect price to find a lot of support around the 1.3800 level so you may want to break this trade up just to be safe.

Alternatively, if price manages to break the 1.4143 level and retests this level as support I will be looking long, with an overall target of 1.4500.

EUR/USD: Long @ 1.4107

2009-06-11T19:02:00.003-04:00

I took a small long @ 1.4110 after I noticed that price found a lot of support right around 38.2 Fibonacci level and 200 day(red) simple moving average (SMA). My target is 20 pips below the 138.3 Fibonacci extension level @ 1.4248. I got a good risk reward on this trade and plenty of technical reasons to enter. Daily stochastics are currently in a bullish cycle and the daily OSMA just printed dark red bar. Nevertheless, I did place a tight stop because there is plenty of resistance for price to break through.

The fundamentals are also supporting this trade at the moment. All of the economic data that came out today supported that the economic contraction may be subsiding. As a result, the risk appetite of the market increased which hurts the value of the dollar.

EUR/USD: Neckline of Head & Shoulders Retested

2009-06-09T20:37:00.004-04:00

I am short @ 1.4070 as I planned last weekend. I placed my stop above the neckline of the Head and Shoulders (H&S) depicted in the one hour charts (H1) that I attached to this post. I attached the H1 chart from the weekend to show what a retest looks like. When a significant technical level like a neckline of a H&S is violated it is usually retested. Well, that it was we got today and if it holds as resistance my target will be 1.3820. If this trade works out I will post to twitter when I move my stop down.

I want to thank everyone that has provided me with feedback. It is greatly appreciated and it has helped me improve my trading and this blog. I hope my commentary has helped.

EUR/USD: Standing Aside +61 pips today

2009-06-08T20:43:00.001-04:00

I am standing aside for now. I will be watching how price behaves as it retests bottom trend line of ascending channel. I am still looking to short but am remaining cautious due to the possible hammer bottom forming on daily. I will feel more comfortable shorting as long as price remains below the 21 exponential moving average (EMA) on daily chart. I am posting my trades in real time on twitter so stay tuned.

EUR/USD: Weekly Technical Outlook

2009-06-07T17:00:00.004-04:00

I closed out my last trade of the week on Friday for +80 pips. I will be looking to short EU early in the week. Price may retrace up to the 1.4050 or the 1.4100 zone before continuing with the bearish correction. I will be paying close attention to how price behaves around the 200 day simple moving average (SMA) on the 1 hour chart (H1). The 200 SMA is also hanging around the 50.0 Fibonacci retracement level. I really like to trade that level because many traders pay attention to that Fibonacci level. Price is approaching a critical level in the 21 day exponential moving average (EMA) on the daily chart, which almost corresponds with the bottom trend line of the ascending channel. Volatility increases around critical levels like this so it may be prudent to stay on the sideline until price demonstrates where it is headed from there. We may get the upside correction from there to the 1.4050 or the 1.4100 level.

Trade Idea: Wait for upside correction to 1.4050 – 1.4100 level Short EU with target of 1.3815

EUR/USD: +26 pips today; Standing aside for now

2009-06-04T20:49:00.003-04:00

I am standing aside for now. I am still looking to short the EU. Notice the Head & Shoulders reversal pattern I have highlighted on 1 hour chart (H1). If and when we get a break of that neckline EU should gain bearish momentum. If EU doesn’t break the neckline and heads north I will be looking to take a small short when price reaches 1.4326 level. I would also like to mention that the ECB stated that “Euro rise is not welcome.” The ECB also “left the door open for further rate cuts.”

EUR/USD: The Power of Fibonacci Retracement/Extensions +78 pips Today

2009-06-03T19:33:00.004-04:00

I wanted to use the latest ABCD move the EU made in the last couple of weeks to explain how I use Fibonacci retracement/extensions to set my profit targets and to demonstrate just how useful Fibonacci levels can be. Take a look at the daily chart. As you can see, after price reached the 1.4050 area on 5/24 (A-B) it retraced to 1.3812 (B-C) which is the 38.2 retracement level. A 38.2 retracement means that if price breaks the 0.0 fib level after the retracement and retests this level your target (C-D) is the 138.2 extension level which is 1.4295. Price did exceed the 138.2 fib level by about 40 pips but that is a pretty big move.

I am standing aside for now. I don’t like to have any positions open before rate announcements unless I have locked in some profit because of the volatility before, during and after the announcement. I will continue to look short as long as the 21 exponential moving average (EMA) holds as resistance on the H4. I am now posting my trades in real time on twitter.

EUR/USD: Short @ 1.4318 last long +120 pips

2009-06-02T20:50:00.004-04:00

I demo traded counter trend trades successfully for 6 months and just recently started taking live counter trend trades. I have been updating my trades in real time on twitter so you can follow them there. Price reached top of ascending channel on daily which also corresponded with the 138.2 Fibonacci extension level. There are bearish divergences in OSMA in Daily and H4 charts and stochastics look set for a bearish cycle. I got plenty of reasons to take this short. Target is 1.4250. I will not be taking any longs any time soon and may look to take another short if price reaches December highs around 1.4460 area. I will keep you posted.

EUR/USD: Weekly Technical Outlook; Buy on Pullback to 1.4050

2009-05-31T17:03:00.004-04:00

I am going to stand aside for now and wait for a pullback to 1.4050 before going long. I have got many questions asking how I determine overall direction. I use moving averages (21 EMA, 50SMA, 200 SMA) and where there are pointing on "the clock" on the daily chart to determine whether price is in a downtrend, uptrend, or trending. If you look at the daily chart I attached to this post, you will notice that I drew the numbers 1-6 as they would be on a clock. When the 21 EMA(yellow) and 50 SMA(blue) are pointing to the 1:00 - 2:00 area of "the clock" price is in a uptrend. If trend lines were pointing at 3:00 region of "the clock" I would determine that price is in a range. If trend lines were pointing 5:00 - 6:00 area of "the clock" price is in a downtrend. And notice how the 21 EMA is above the 50 SMA, which is above the 200 SMA; this is also an indication that price is in a uptrend. As a result of these indications, and the fact that EU broke through a lot of technical resistance last week, I am bullish EU and have determined that EU is in a uptrend. This means I am looking only to take long positions. I do consider counter trend trades when I see bearish divergences forming on upper time frames and stochastics are overbought/oversold on all time frames, but this is rare.

Weekly Strategy: Buy on dips with overall target at the 138.2 FIB extension level @ 1.4290

EUR/USD: +30 pips last trade

2009-05-29T05:55:00.002-04:00

I went long at 1.4019 and exited at 1.4050. I am going to stand aside for now and wait for the 1.4050/60 area to be tested as support. Stochastics on H4 and M30 charts are in overbought territory and there are bearish divergences (price making higher highs, OSMA failing to make higher highs) developing on both M30 and H4. If the 1.4050 area holds as support I will take another long position and my target will be 1.4290 which is the 138.2 FIB extension level.

EUR/USD: Why wait for the retest?

2009-05-28T22:31:00.003-04:00

The EU broke the 1.3980 level finally after several attempts throughout the day. Does this mean you jump in so you don't MISS THE MOVE? Absolutely not! 70% of breakouts fail so it is critical to wait for a level that is broken to hold as support. Notice the M30 chart where price breaks that level and gains strong momentum as this level is violated. The reason this happens is because some people are looking to buy there but many short sellers have their stops just above that level. Waiting for the retest is giving you a level of insurance and helps improve you risk reward ratio.

EUR/USD: last trade -2 pips: Will EU break 1.4000?

2009-05-28T20:29:00.003-04:00

The EU tried to break the 200 SMA M30 several times without success. This is why waiting for the retest is critical. If you would have jumped in on those breaks without waiting on the retest you would have felt a lot of pain several times. I am waiting for the 1.3980 level to be broken and retested before going long. If that 0.0 Fib level is broke and RETESTED my initial target will be 1.4055 which is a few pips below the 161.8% retracement level. I will be looking to go short if we get a break and retest of the 1.3880 area.

EUR/USD: Long @ 1.3964

2009-05-28T11:09:00.002-04:00

EUR/USD: EU gets a boost from better than expected economic data

2009-05-28T10:13:00.002-04:00

The EU got a boost after German unemployment change data came out better than expected. In addition, core durable good orders and unemployment claims data out of the U.S. came out better than expected. The EU rally was halted when U.S. new home sales data disappointed the market. I am waiting to see if the 21 EMA H4 (purple dashed line on M30 chart) holds as support. If it does i will maintain my bullish bias and will look to go long.

EUR/USD: Closed 1.3925 +35 pips

2009-05-28T10:08:00.004-04:00

I closed this trade after housing data came out. I am going to stand aside for now. I just recently increased my position sizes so I am adjusting to that. I add to my position sizes as my account balance allots for it.

EUR/USD: Long @ 1.3890

2009-05-28T09:42:00.002-04:00

I waited for the retest this time. I will move my stop up below the 200 SMA (red) once it is broken. I moved my stop to break even shortly after the 21 EMA (yellow) was broken and retested.

EUR/USD: WAIT FOR RETEST!!!!!!!

2009-05-27T20:51:00.004-04:00

The market was tough today. My trade today was a prime example of why it is critical to wait for the retest. I got impulsive and was enticed by the spike around 8:00 AM this morning that blew through the 21 EMA on the H4. That is a significant level that hasn't been broken since the 18th. Shortly after taking the trade price bounced right off daily S1 and went right up and broke back through the 21 EMA and daily PP and took me out quickly. If I would have waited for the retest I would have still went short but not until the 21 EMA was broken and retested after this reversal. I break this rule much less often now, but it is a rule that I should follow 100% of the time. I will be looking to short EU as long as price remains below 21 EMA H4. Right now price is meeting resistance at the weekly PP (1.3822). Stochastics on H4 and M30 are in oversold territory right now so EU may be due for a pullback before declining further.

EUR/USD: Stopped -40 pips

2009-05-27T09:23:00.000-04:00

EUR/USD: Short EU @ 1.3927

2009-05-27T08:54:00.001-04:00

I started feeling some pain on this trade almost immediately after taking it. If I get stopped out, I will examine what I did wrong later. Headed to the office.

EUR/USD: Possible short opportunity

2009-05-26T21:03:00.003-04:00

I will be looking to go short if the 21 EMA on H4 is broken and retested. If and when this happens, I will pay attention to how price is behaving around Fib retracement levels on daily chart. As these levels are broken I will bring my stop down 20 pips above them.

EUR/USD: closed last trade +48 pips

2009-05-26T20:33:00.003-04:00

I decided to close out the last trade because price found a great deal of resistance at the 1.4015 level. I have decided to wait for price to break and retest the 1.4044 level before taking another position. Stochastics are overbought from Weekly to H4 time frames so we may get another retracement prior to the next bullish continuation. Also, there is a bearish divergence (price making higher high, indicator failing to make higher high) developing in OSMA on daily chart.I am sort of struggling with this decision because I have failed to let the last several trades go to target.

EUR/USD: Long @ 1.3941

2009-05-26T10:03:00.004-04:00

Price retraced from last weeks high to the 61.8% Fib level (1.3855) and to lower trend line depicted in M30 chart. I like to wait for a break of the 21 EMA before entering so I got in at 1.3941. My target will be 1.4170 which is the 50% Fib level depicted on weekly chart.

EUR/USD: Possible trade for the counter trend traders

2009-05-25T22:24:00.004-04:00

I am going to stick to my trading plan. For those of you that counter trend trade this may be a nice set up for you. H4 stochastics are turning bearish at the moment. If you are thinking of taking this trade you may want M30 stochastics to finish bull cycle.

EUR/USD: Standing Aside; +25 pips last trade

2009-05-25T11:49:00.003-04:00

I am standing aside for right now. I am looking to take another long position. I am waiting for either a break and retest of 0.0 Fib level M30 (1.4049) or a retracement to the 23.6% Fib level depicted on daily to go long. If I get a break and retest of 0.0 Fib level on M30, my target will be the 161.8 extension (1.4143). If price retraces to the 23.6% Fib level daily my target will be 127.0 extension level (1.4225).

EUR/USD: Locked in some profits and moved stop down

2009-05-25T04:14:00.002-04:00

I locked in some profit when price reached 1.3960. I moved my stop down to 1.4015 right above 50 SMA (blue) and 21 EMA (yellow).

EUR/USD: How far will the EU retrace?

2009-05-24T23:00:00.004-04:00

I built a short position right around the 1.4000 psychological level. I notice the bearish divergences (price made higher high, indicator failed to make higher high) in H4 and daily stochastics. My position size is much smaller than usual because of the rather loose stop, and because this is a counter trend trade. I don’t trade against the trend very often, but I got numerous reasons technically to enter this trade. I am exiting this trade at 1.3920. I will move my stop down to first short entry at 1.3975 if and when price reaches 1.3940 area. Price may find support at the 23.6 retracement level (1.3905) depicted on daily chart and then resume the bullish continuation. If this area proves to be support the I will enter long here. If not, I will wait for price to retrace to the 38.2 retracement level depicted on daily and watch if price finds support here to enter long.

My commentary will resume Tuesday May 25

2009-05-19T09:50:00.002-04:00

I will be on vacation until Tuesday May 25.

EUR/USD: Standing Aside

2009-05-18T20:48:00.004-04:00

30 minute chart: I will look to go short if i get a break and retest of 21 EMA (yellow).

4 hour chart: Price met resistance at 61.8% retracement level and stochastics seem to be headed down. I don't like to short unless stochastics crosses below 80. With a break and retest of 21 EMA on 30 minute chart that should happen. If I take this trade I will post with target.

EUR/USD: Short @1.3490

2009-05-18T10:13:00.002-04:00

I decided to short here. I noticed the bearish divergences (price making higher high indicator failing to make higher high) in the OSMA and stochastics. Initial Target 1.3445. I will then sell half my position and move stop to break even.

EUR/USD: Standing Aside

2009-05-17T19:46:00.002-04:00

I got out before target on last trade and it cost me 10 pips. I became fearful of a reversal when I noticed the bullish divergence (price made new low, stochastics failed to make new low) developing in stochastics M30 (see chart). Since I broke one of my rules I did visit the accountability terminal located on this blog. Price did reverse back to 1.3488 only to go right to my target. I am standing aside for now. I want to see a break and retest of the 1.3436 level (white horizontal line depicted on chart) before i go short again. I would also like to see stochastics finish bull cycle on H4 and M30.

EUR/USD: Closed 1.3455 +30 pips

2009-05-17T18:22:00.001-04:00

EUR/USD: Short @ 1.3485 target 1.3445

2009-05-17T16:53:00.001-04:00

EUR/USD: Weekly Technical Outlook

2009-05-16T15:16:00.004-04:00

The EU clearly broke the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern discussed in previous posts on Friday. Price is retesting that neckline and should continue to move down if that level holds as resistance. I am looking to short on the retest of the neckline and weekly PP with a target of 1.3445. Quick 40 pips or so. I want to wait and see how price behaves around that 1.3440/30 area since that area acted as such strong resistance previously. A break of that area I will be looking to short again. My overall target on this trade will be that cluster of support depicted on daily chart 1.3340/50 area (50% fib level, 21 and 50 SMA's).

EUR/USD: Ascending channel still intact

2009-05-15T10:56:00.002-04:00

Price still seems like it is topping here, but I am maintaining my bullish bias since the ascending channel remained intact this morning. Price retraced to 50% fib level depicted on chart H4. With a break and retest of 0.0 fib level - 1.3720 overall target would be 1.3955 which is the 161.8 fib extension. May go long if price pulls back to 1.3570 area and look to exit at 1.3690. Will wait for break and retest of 0.0 level to initiate another long position. Will be looking to go short with a break and retest of bottom trend line of ascending channel.

EUR/USD: Head and Shoulders

2009-05-15T07:16:00.002-04:00

A break of the neckline here would trigger some selling in the Euro. I am still standing aside.

EUR/USD: German preliminary GDP

2009-05-14T21:28:00.002-04:00

German preliminary GDP accounts for the value of all goods and services produced by the economy. Important things to note about this indicator:

- Relevance = high
- Germany accounts for large part of Euro-zone
- Number greater than forecast is bullish for EUR/USD
- Most comprehensive measure of economic activity and economy’s condition
- Release Schedule: Quarterly, 45 days after the quarter ends

EUR/USD: Chasing the trade

2009-05-14T20:38:00.003-04:00

I was face with a tough decision when I awoke this morning. Price bounced of the double bottom depicted on M30 chart and approached the 21 SMA (yellow). When I noticed I missed the entry I planned on I was disappointed. “What a nice double bottom that is,” I was saying to myself. What concerned me was that price had to breakthrough a great deal of resistance (21, 50, and 200 SMA’s) at that point. Moreover, the risk reward wasn’t nearly as good at that entry point as it would have been off of that double bottom. I then began to ask myself if I should “chase this trade.” Well, I maintained my discipline and decided not to take this trade. Chasing trades has cost me a lot of money and I have learned through experience not to do it. I must admit, it was painful to watch my well planed trade unfold in front of my eyes as I thought about how much my P/L would have increased with that hundred pips. But I’m sure if I got back into the habit of chasing trades it would cost me in the long run. I am watching that 1.3720 area closely. A break and retest of that area I will be looking long. I may consider a short if that area seems to be holding as resistance.

EUR/USD: PPI data

2009-05-13T21:05:00.001-04:00

PPI data reflects changes in the prices that manufacturers and wholesalers pay for services during different stages of production. If PPI data indicates inflation, then the American consumer will be paying more for good at the retail level. Important things to not about this indicator:

- Relevance = high
- A small pickup in inflation may be bullish for the dollar because this will push U.S. short-term interest rates higher.
- Release Schedule: 8:30 AM (EST); monthly

EUR/USD: Will ascending channel hold?

2009-05-13T20:08:00.006-04:00

I got nervous today after watching that bearish divergence (price making higher high, indicator failing to make higher high) form in H4 stochastics. I locked in 3 pips and moved my stop up. Well, I'm glad I did. Currently, the EU is getting pounded after breaking through the 1.3550 support area. Price is currently approaching weekly PP and trend ling that was acting as resistance since December of 08'. I am watching that cluster of support (weekly PP, trend line, 50% fib level, and bottom trend line of ascending channel) closely. If all of that is broken through and retested I will obviously be looking to go short. If this cluster acts as support, I will take another long position. The daily chart is looking bearish at the moment, as evidenced by possible double top and stochastics just turning below 80.

EUR/USD: Closed +3 pips after moving stop up

2009-05-13T12:53:00.003-04:00

I am going to stand aside for right now until I feel more comfortable with things.

EUR/USD: long @ 1.3611

2009-05-13T10:30:00.001-04:00

EUR/USD: Standing Aside

2009-05-12T21:05:00.003-04:00

EU should meet resistance at 1.3730's which is previous highs in March. I am going to wait for either a break and retest of that horizontal support level or a pullback back to 1.3600 area before going long again.

EUR/USD: Economic Data being released on Wednesday

2009-05-12T20:53:00.002-04:00

Retail Sales data reflects how much the American consumer is spending on goods at department stores, auto dealers, gas stations, and food and service providers. Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of the US’s economic activity, and retail sales makes up about one third of that. Important things to note about this indicator:

- Relevance = high
- This report is tricky because a strong consumer reflects that the economy is improving which would increase risk appetite, which has recently hurt the value of the dollar. A really strong number would indicate to the FED that they may need to firm up interest rates (bullish for the dollar). However, since the US has a rather large trade deficit, an increase in the demand of imports increases the value of the currencies used to purchase those products (dollar bearish).
- Due to how tricky this report is it would be prudent to wait for the volatility to decrease before actually taking a position.
- Release Schedule: 8:30 AM (EST); monthly

EUR/USD: closed +75 pips second half of position

2009-05-12T08:16:00.002-04:00

I decided to break this trade up because price was approaching horizontal support level and upper trend line of ascending channel. I will wait for a break and retest of that horizontal support, or will wait for stochastics to cool off in upper time frames and for price to find support before taking another long position. May be good short opportunity coming up for you swing traders.

EUR/USD: Afraid to miss a move?

2009-05-11T21:39:00.003-04:00

This blog has become a journey of self disclosure. I believe I was inpatient with this trade because I became afraid to miss the move this morning once price made that 38.2% retracement and broke back above 1.3600. Because of this, I rearranged my mental furniture and talked myself into this trade. I neglected to notice that price was at the top of the ascending channel and really didn't consider that stochastics on every time frame from daily - M30 were Overbought at the time. Also, there is a confluence of support (Weekly PP, 21 SMA, Trend line) right around 1.3500 level that I overlooked. What concerns me about this is that confluences of indicators like that tend to act like magnets for price. Now, I maintain my bullish outlook for the EUR/USD but I think I could have had a much better long entry here. I sold half of my position for a 25 pip loss. I plan on adding that back on if price makes it to that confluence of indicators and they support price.

EUR/USD: Economic Data being released on Tuesday

2009-05-11T21:16:00.000-04:00

Trade Balance reflects the difference between exports out of U.S, and imports into America. Important things to note about this economic indicator:

- Relevance = medium to high
- Chief element of the US’s Balance of Payment, which provides insight into the value of the dollar
- Imports > Exports = Trade Deficit, which weighs down value of the dollar
- Used as a tool by currency traders to forecast trends of major currency pairs
- Release Schedule: 8:30 AM (EST); monthly

EUR/USD: Long @ 1.3606

2009-05-11T10:20:00.003-04:00

I wanted more of a pullback (at least to lower trendline) but didn't get it. Price found support spot on the 38.2% retracement. My final target is the 138.2% extension at 1.3770.

EUR/USD: New Uptrend in Place?

2009-05-10T15:36:00.003-04:00

The EUR/USD gained bullish momentum last week after the Non Farm Payroll data came out better than expected. The Eu broke through some significant technical levels, specifically the trend line that has been acting as resistance since the EU hit all time highs in July of 08'. I expect this trend line to be retested earlier in the week and will be looking to take a long position if it proves to now be support. Short term/swing traders may have good short opportunities earlier in the week.

EUR/USD: Economic Data being released Monday

2009-05-09T15:04:00.003-04:00

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Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke Speaks on Monday. Forex traders tend to pay close attention to the language in his speeches because they can provide good insight into the FOMC monetary policy goals. Important things to note about Fed Chairman Speeches:

- Relevance = high
- volatility increases during the speech
- may be prudent not to open any new positions during the speech, and to tighten stops during speeches

French industrial production keeps track of changes in the production of goods, not including energy or food. Important things to note about this economic indicator:

- Relevance = medium to low
- Can forecast changes in employment, earnings, and personal income
- Considered a dependable forward looking indicator of the overall health of the French economy
- Release Schedule: Usually 6:40 (GMT); monthly, in the first half of the month, with a two month lag

EUR/USD: +59 pips last trade

2009-05-08T19:32:00.003-04:00

The long trade I was waiting for played out, but I got in late. I was waiting for price to retest the 1.3450/40 level. I think I was a little conservative here. I should have went long at 1.3469 area. I went long at 1.3516 and exited @1.3575.

EUR/USD: Waiting For Pullback

2009-05-08T09:15:00.005-04:00

I am going to wait for a retest of the 1.3440/30 level before going long. I will need price to pullback to this level to get a decent risk reward ratio (I like at least 2:1). If I don't get the pullback today, I will wait for the trend line on daily to be broken and retested before going long.

EUR/USD: Waiting for break of range

2009-05-07T22:37:00.004-04:00

I am waiting for a break and retest of the range ( 1.3244 - 1.3432) before I get back in.

EUR/USD: Non Farm Payroll

2009-05-07T21:57:00.002-04:00

As a refresher for myself, and to help other traders, I will be providing daily brief explanations of the Economic Data Reports that effect the EUR/USD to be released the following day.

The Non Farm Payroll Report (NFP), also referred to as the establishment survey, is coming out tomorrow and this is the "big number" all traders really pay attention to. The NFP forecast is for the U.S. to lose another -590K jobs. Important things to consider about this report are:

- Relevance = High

- NFP reports on about 80% of U.S. workforce, except government jobs, self employed, and farm workers, among some others.

- most economists believe that the U.S. needs to add an average of 100,000 to 150,000 jobs every month to accommodate population growth and to keep unemployment rate from rising

- the markets pays close attention to the difference between the actual number and the forecasted number

- trading this report is very difficult and risky

Closed Last Trade for +33 Pips

2009-05-05T21:16:00.002-04:00

I locked some profits in earlier in the day after I noticed the bearish divergences on the 30 minute and 4 hour charts. I need catch up on the fundamentals and technicals before I take another trade. As I just glanced at the charts I noticed things looked pretty bearish.

EUR/USD: Hammer H4; 50% Retracement from yesterdays high

2009-05-05T08:20:00.004-04:00

It is never easy is it. I am a little concerned about this trade due to the bearish divergences (Price making higher high, while indicators failing to make higher high) in OSMA's on the 4 hour and 30 minute charts. We did get a bullish candle formation on the 4 hour chart in the form of the hammer bottom. Price pulled back to 1.3320 which corresponds almost exactly with a 50% retracement from yesterday's high. With a break and retest of 0.0 Fib level (3o minute chart)at 1.3437 the projected price extension level would be the 161.8 Fib extension at 1.3576.

EUR/USD: Re-entered Long @ 1.3340

2009-05-04T18:27:00.002-04:00

I was whipsawed out of my earlier trade for a 40 pip loss after the German Retail Sales m/m numbers were released earlier this morning. I re-entered after price broke above 1.3300 for the second time after Pending Home Sales came out better than expected at 3.2%. I find it hard to re-enter trades after a loss but the technicals and the fundamentals matched so I got back in. When the markets risk appetite increases the dollar starts getting sold because it is considered a "safe haven." I'm confused. If better than expected news is coming out about the U.S economy and the European economy is continuing to get worse, shouldn't the dollars value be improving against the Euro? I don't know, I just follow the crowd. My target is the 138.2 extension of the Fib depicted on the chart since price seemed to bounce off the 38.2 retracement level. For those of you that are not familial with MT4, the green dashed line is where I entered the trade andf the red dashed line is where I currently have my stop.

Closed last position for -40 pips

2009-05-04T07:58:00.000-04:00

EUR/USD: Long @ 1.3322

2009-05-03T21:11:00.002-04:00

I got the break and retest of the upper trend line of the descending channel on H4 and upper trend line on M30. Using the Fib to set my target. Final target will be 1.3540. When and if price reaches 1.3385 I will move my stop up. I got plenty of technical signals to enter this trade so I took it.

EUR/USD: Head and Shoulders Reversal Pattern H4

2009-05-03T01:58:00.002-04:00

Price is currently bouncing around the neckline of this head and Shoulders reversal pattern.

EUR/USD: Weekly Technical Outlook

2009-05-02T22:04:00.008-04:00

I would stand aside for now. I am going to wait for a break and retest of either the upper or lower trend lines on M30. Will go long after break of the upper trend line which corresponds with the 1.3300 level and trend line on daily. There is much more resistance on the short side on most time frames. Will go short after break and retest of lower trend line. Price is currently testing that line. Stochastics on H4 and M30, and zero line rejection in OSMA (M30) are demonstrating that price may be headed down to 1.3200 level which also corresponds with the 200 SMA on M30.

EUR/USD: 1.3290 Stop Triggered

2009-05-01T08:16:00.002-04:00

My stop at 1.3290 was triggered early this morning. I closed out second half of my position with a +40 pip profit. I don't like to trade on Friday's so I probably won't be opening any new positions today.

Moved Stop Down to 1.3290

2009-04-30T20:56:00.002-04:00

I moved my stop down to 1.3290 which is just above the 50 SMA (blue) which was acting as support (now resistance) during the EU's recent up move.

Sold Half Position @ 1.3258

2009-04-30T07:19:00.002-04:00

I locked in +73 pips on half of my position when price reached that 1.3251 support level and brought my stop to 5 pips below original buy point @ 1.3325. I didn't want to be greedy and I also didn't want to replicate the mistake I made with my last trade. Now I will let profits run.

Short EU @ 1.3330

2009-04-29T21:11:00.004-04:00

Nice technical set-up. Price reached the upper trend line on the daily chart and began to stall. Stochastics are bearish on daily. That trend line has been in place since December so it should be a significant resistance level. There is a bearish divergence in the OSMA on H4 and Stochastics are turning bearish. Also, bearish divergence on M30 and Stochastics are turning bearish. In addition, a shooting star developed and played out on M30 during Obama's press conference. Now, I would like to mention that this market has been very difficult for me to trade lately because technicals have been negated by world events and fundamental surprises. Target 1.2888 stop @ 1.3420. Plan is to manually move stop down as support levels are broken.

EU gaining bullish momentum

2009-04-29T12:20:00.002-04:00

I am looking to go long after we get the retest of the upper line of the descending channel. Just recently got a break of the 1.3300 level. Waiting to see if that will hold as support.

Plan of Action

2009-04-28T22:45:00.000-04:00

I mismanaged my last trade and a winner turned into a loser. If I continue to let this happen my bottom line will be affected in a big way. I could start using a trailing stop but I really don’t like them because I found that I was getting out of trades way too early. I have started using manual trailing stops, moving stops down above support levels as they got broken. I failed to do that last trade which cost me. I will make sure to set alerts that wake me if price breaks the next support level from now on.

I noticed that when I became more public about my trades fear began taking me over a little. As a result, the past few trades posted on this blog were not as profitable as they could have been. I think, however, that this blog will help me in the long run because I will be more cognizant of my rules (must be 2:1, only with trend when one is in place, wait for retest, etc.) when I place trades, which is also critical for my bottom line.

Mismanaged Last Trade

2009-04-28T11:56:00.000-04:00

I broke a cardinal rule of trading and let a potential +50 pips winner turn into a -23 pip loser. I overslept and didn’t set and alerts in MT4 to wake me in case price reached certain levels. I hate when this happens. This is a mistake that I made a lot more when I was new to trading. I will come up with an action plan that will ensure this happens less often in the future and will post it later. I am at work now. It looks like price is meeting resistance at that 1.3088 level which is where price broke out yesterday.

Short EU @ 1.3018

2009-04-27T21:09:00.004-04:00

I took a position trade short @ 1.3018. I was at work so I missed the initial break of 1.3088. I am concerned that I got in late here. Maybe I should have waited for retracement? I took a smaller position due to the fact that I got in late. Fib to downside 1.3737 - 1.2888 - price retraced to 50.0 level at 1.3313. The 161.8 extension, which would be target with a break and retest of 1.2888 is 1.2362. Price clearly broke through most support (trendlines, moving averages). My initial target will be 1.2890. Hopefully, fear doesn't take me over this time and I wait for target.

Locked in +2 after price reached 1.3088 support level

2009-04-27T09:12:00.002-04:00

Locked in +2 pips after price reached 1.3088 support level. A hammer developed on M30 and price quickly went up and took me out for the small profit. I'm glad I locked in some profit. Now I will wait and see if that support level at 1.3088 gets broken, or for a conformation that this down leg was just a corrective wave before further upside movement.

Got the break and retest of lower Trendline.

2009-04-27T08:53:00.003-04:00

Short EU @ 1.3120 Target 1.3015. Now that the world is concerned about the swine flu, risk aversion is lifting the dollar up. T-bills are up this morning and the dollar has made some hefty gains across the board. The daily technicals are pointing south and price should probe that lower trend line which corresponds with my target of 1.3015.

First trade of the week +26 pips.

2009-04-26T23:01:00.003-04:00

I like to start the week of with a winning trade. I know I deviated from my trading plan, but that set up was nice and gave me good risk reward ratio. Now lets see if the 50% Fib and that lower trendline hold as support.

Short @1.3189 Target 1.3159

2009-04-26T21:53:00.000-04:00

Standing Aside

2009-04-26T14:16:00.007-04:00

The EU seems to be consolidating and it has been hard for me to determine a clear direction on this pair for now. The positive fundamental news (PMI and German IFO business confidence survey) that came out last week really negated the technicals, giving me some trouble on my last trade and I got stopped out. I am paying close attention to the 1.3400 level since it is OO psychological level and because it corresponds with the 61.8% retracement depicted on the daily chart. Also, the upper trend line of the descending channel depicted on H4 chart is coming into play. After a break and retest of that line I will be looking long. If the EU breaks that trend line starting from the low at 1.2888 and retests I will look short. Just waiting to see how everything plays out.

Shorted EU @ 1.3146 w/ Tight Stop @1.3165

2009-04-23T23:54:00.002-04:00

I shorted here because Stochastics on H4 is also showing signs of topping here. My target is 1.3117. If the 1.3088 resistance holds through Euro open I will start looking for long entry.

Sold half @ 1.2888 yesterdays low

2009-04-22T03:17:00.001-04:00

I sold half my position at 1.2888 and moved my stop to break even. I am going to let profits run to final target.

Short @ 1.2977

2009-04-22T03:01:00.002-04:00

I saw this head and shoulders pattern on the M30 and after Weber's comments saw a good short opportunity here. Took it. Target 1.2788.

Took Profit after Geithner's Comments

2009-04-21T17:42:00.001-04:00

Took +15 pips after Geithner's comments... Wasn't sure how things were going to play out. I hate when a winner turns into a loser.

Initial Target is 1.2910

2009-04-21T16:02:00.001-04:00

Will sell half my position @ 1.2910 will move my stop to breakeven at that point and will let profits run.

Signs of top.. went short @1.2963

2009-04-21T13:24:00.002-04:00

Went short. I noticed the bearish divergences in the OSMA and Stochs. I also notices the two shooting star candle formations right around that 23.6 fib level. I must admit, I am unsure of my target at the moment. Will post it sooon.

EU finds Support After ZEW Economic Sentiment Report

2009-04-21T09:47:00.003-04:00

EU found support at 1.2988. What to do? Since the EU is in clear downtrend I will only look for short entries. I will enter half of my short if and when price reaches that upper trendline and will place my stop about 30 pips above horizontal support line at 1.3115. I have been trying to scale in recently. Also, notice the bullish divergence in the Stochastics.

When to Short EU Next

2009-04-20T20:42:00.004-04:00

I am going to wait until 1.2900 level (138.2 %) is broken to enter short. Target will be 161.8% Fib Level

Rationale for exiting last trade

2009-04-19T22:07:00.000-04:00

I got out of the last trade because I noticed this bullish divergence in the OSMA and that Stoch were exhausted to downside. Also, the smaller candle bodies demonstrated to me that the down move was losing some steam. Plus I am going to bed soon and don't like to leave open trades unless I have locked in at least +20 pips. Seems good possibility for countertrend trade because indicators in H4 are in agreement with M30.

Locked in +10 pips EU short

2009-04-19T22:02:00.000-04:00

Not a huge success but better than a loss. First trade +10 pips

First trade on this blog

2009-04-19T20:49:00.000-04:00

Ok here we go. My first trade. My target was almost hit very quickly after taking this trade. I am having a struggle with myself at the moment. Should I wait for target. This is fear setting in. I will wait. Short @ 1.2990 stop @ 1.3120 target @ 1.2957 not 2:1 win loss is it. Well, also my first mistake on this blog.

EU Broke 1.3000 Psychological level

2009-04-19T20:21:00.000-04:00

Well, I got the break I was looking for but it was shortlived. Price bounced off the lower trendline of descending channel. This is when I have trouble. I get impulsive on these breaks at times only to be faked out. I noticed that I am being more patient probably because I know my trades will be more public now. LOL. I will wait for a better short entry. Also, I have found that there are many more false breakouts during asian session.

2009-04-19T19:36:00.000-04:00

The EU is clearly in a downtrend. I use Fibs to set my targets. My overall target is 1.2785 which is the 161.8% extension of 61.8% fib 1.3580/1.3088. I use daily to determine overall direction and H4/M30 for entry and exits. Use Fibs, pivot points for targets. Had a 66% overall success rate last month. Will post enrty/stop/target when I enter and the results f

Will the EU retest 1.3080/90 before break of 1.3000?

2009-04-19T18:17:00.000-04:00

Right now 1.3015 seems to be holding as support. Should I wait for a break and retest of 1.3000 before going short? Why not? Or maybe 1.3080 will get retested before short sellers come back. Right now the Eu retraced to 23.6 at 1.3066 on the nose. If the 0.0 level gets broke and retested my target will be 1.2957 the 127 extension. Trichet's comments seem to be waying heavily on the EU right now.